Borussia Dortmund U19 3–0 RW Oberhausen U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

Y. Moukoko 88', 86'

A. Bakir 45+1' (pen)

3/8/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 20Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1969%

×Draw17%

RW Oberhausen U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.06

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.54

RW Oberhausen U19

1.06

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 140% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 52 away

3.00

creates per match

1.21

0.92

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

3.00

RW Oberhausen U19

1.21

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.92

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

86%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

83%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

31%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

47%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

92%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

72%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

46%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

65%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

29%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

83%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.92 · 71 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 3.00 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.54

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

69%

level

17%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

14%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

A. BakirPenalty

46'

R. Hetemi← F. Schlüsselburg

46'

A. Marković← E. Gojnovci

63'

N. Knoop← R. Ferjani

63'

S. Köse← A. Errayi

68'

J. Rauch← A. Knauff

69'

E. Surmanski← F. Cakmak

75'

E. Terzi← M. Wengerowski

82'

E. Kücük← L. Bachmann

86'

Y. Moukoko

88'

Y. Moukoko

Borussia

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Skibbe

46'▲R. Hetemi←▼F. Schlüsselburg

63'▲N. Knoop←▼R. Ferjani

68'▲J. Rauch←▼A. Knauff

75'▲E. Terzi←▼M. Wengerowski

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

HetemiKnoopRauchTerziKuffourMeierDeubel

Manager: D. Pappas

46'▲A. Marković←▼E. Gojnovci

63'▲S. Köse←▼A. Errayi

69'▲E. Surmanski←▼F. Cakmak

82'▲E. Kücük←▼L. Bachmann

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

MarkovićKöseSurmanskiKücükNachitBilginWigger

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 3–0 RW Oberhausen U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 8, 2020.

Goals: A. Bakir (45+1' pen), Y. Moukoko (86', 88').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 3–0 RW Oberhausen U19