RW Oberhausen U19 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Bayer Leverkusen U19

J. Kanga 89'

E. Aksoy 52'

N. Pesch 38'

D. Widlarz 9'

10/8/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1930%

×Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.90

RW Oberhausen U19

1.45

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.90

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 64 away

1.58

creates per match

2.20

1.60

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

52%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

78%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

70%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

13%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

77%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

42%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

18%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

85%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

56%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

48%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Widlarz

24'

W. Izuwa← O. Hot

37'

K. Harbering

38'

N. Pesch

46'

F. Geißler← J. Symalla

46'

L. Twumasi← J. Mulamba

52'

61'

75'

80'

89'

90'

T. Böhm← A. Sancarbarlaz

RW

Bayer

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kaya

24'▲W. Izuwa←▼O. Hot

46'▲F. Geißler←▼J. Symalla

46'▲L. Twumasi←▼J. Mulamba

61'▲A. Terzi←▼E. Özat

90'▲T. Böhm←▼A. Sancarbarlaz

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

IzuwaGeißlerTwumasiTerziBöhmPlathSimakis

Manager: S. Hübscher

75'▲C. Moustfa←▼R. Petak

80'▲J. Kanga←▼D. Widlarz

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

MoustfaKangaBancéBäuerleNeutgensMünzIn-Gyom

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

Goals: D. Widlarz (9'), N. Pesch (38'), E. Aksoy (52'), J. Kanga (89').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen U19