Bayer Leverkusen U19 3–1 RW Oberhausen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

A. Tshimuanga 79'

E. Gedikli 10'

L. Pesch 3'

B. Inan 56'

10/18/2020

U19 Bundesliga · West - 3Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1962%

×Draw19%

RW Oberhausen U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.23

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.37

RW Oberhausen U19

1.23

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

2.65

creates per match

1.20

1.26

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

81%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

81%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

38%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

40%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

91%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

68%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

42%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

71%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

35%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

77%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.37

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

19%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

L. Pesch

10'

E. Gedikli

46'

D. Karantalis← B. Bartu

56'

66'

76'

79'

83'

88'

M. Eickschläger← A. Tshimuanga

Bayer

RW

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Tshimuang

⚽

Gedikli

Manager: M. von Ahlen

88'▲M. Eickschläger←▼A. Tshimuanga

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

EickschlägerBarakHaj-YahyaErkenWesemannNeutgensFünger

Manager: M. Kaya

46'▲D. Karantalis←▼B. Bartu

66'▲N. Heim←▼K. Skolik

76'▲B. Saglam←▼A. Özgen

83'▲M. Bank←▼I. Sejdijaj

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

KarantalisHeimSaglamBankRadszuweitRamstijnPomorin

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 18, 2020.

Goals: L. Pesch (3'), E. Gedikli (10'), B. Inan (56'), A. Tshimuanga (79').

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19