RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Arminia Bielefeld U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Arminia Bielefeld U19

A. Marković 38'

M. Heck 11'

B. Pudel 53'

J. Consbruch 29'

12/8/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 14Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1945%

×Draw23%

Arminia Bielefeld U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.52

RW Oberhausen U19

1.82

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.52

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

1.58

creates per match

1.44

1.60

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

68%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

77%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

55%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

24%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

84%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

54%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

27%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

78%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

45%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.82

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

45%

level

23%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

32%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Heck

29'

J. Consbruch

36'

A. Nachit← P. Overfeld

38'

A. Marković

53'

B. Pudel

59'

M. Fleer← E. Surmanski

61'

L. Geishauser← E. Kücük

69'

M. Bairamov← C. Stabenau

77'

B. Inan← M. Heck

77'

M. El Ouahmi← B. Karahan

RW

Arminia

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Heck

▼

Surmanski

Manager: D. Pappas

36'▲A. Nachit←▼P. Overfeld

59'▲M. Fleer←▼E. Surmanski

61'▲L. Geishauser←▼E. Kücük

77'▲B. Inan←▼M. Heck

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

NachitFleerGeishauserInanSaglamBilginPomorin

Manager: O. Kirch

69'▲M. Bairamov←▼C. Stabenau

77'▲M. El Ouahmi←▼B. Karahan

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

BairamovOuahmiYükselMoskvinFausewehKalac

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Arminia Bielefeld U19

RW Oberhausen U19 and Arminia Bielefeld U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 8, 2019.

Goals: M. Heck (11'), J. Consbruch (29'), A. Marković (38'), B. Pudel (53').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Arminia Bielefeld U19