Arminia Bielefeld U19 2–3 RW Oberhausen U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

K. Bauer 60'

C. Dogan 44'

K. Skolik 80'

M. Bank 77'

A. Özgen 58'

2/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 11Sportplatz Masch Kunstrasen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1947%

×Draw23%

RW Oberhausen U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.44

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.85

RW Oberhausen U19

1.44

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 49 away

1.63

creates per match

1.20

1.68

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.63

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.68

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

70%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

77%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

53%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

26%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

84%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

55%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

28%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

76%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

42%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

61%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 60 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.63 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

47%

level

23%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

30%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

46'

58'

60'

60'

64'

71'

N. Korniyenko← J. Schade

76'

J. Schefer← H. Dier

77'

M. Bank

80'

K. Skolik

81'

E. Ibrahimi← V. Cherny

88'

T. Wozny← F. Kocaarslan

Arminia

RW

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Dogan

▼

Schade

▼

Kocaarsla

Manager: F. Fulland

64'▲F. Yilmaz←▼C. Dogan

71'▲N. Korniyenko←▼J. Schade

81'▲E. Ibrahimi←▼V. Cherny

88'▲T. Wozny←▼F. Kocaarslan

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

YilmazKorniyenkoIbrahimiWoznyTirpanSpeckmannHahne

Manager: M. Kaya

46'▲K. Yalcin←▼B. Bartu

60'▲M. Bank←▼A. Özgen

76'▲J. Schefer←▼H. Dier

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

YalcinBankScheferFoitWaschkauKlinger

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 12, 2022.

Goals: C. Dogan (44'), A. Özgen (58'), K. Bauer (60'), M. Bank (77'), K. Skolik (80').

The match was played at Sportplatz Masch Kunstrasen A in Halle.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19