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Ružomberok vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Ružomberok
Ružomberok
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
8/29/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsFutbalový štadión MFK Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ružomberok58%
×Draw23%
FC Noah19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ružomberok
1.85
FC Noah
0.96

Ružomberok creates 93% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ružomberok
1.25
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

Ružomberok
1.00
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

Ružomberok+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ružomberok or draw
81%
Ružomberok or FC Noah
77%
Draw or FC Noah
42%

Winning margin

Ružomberok wins by 2+
34%
FC Noah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ružomberok 1+ goals
84%
Ružomberok 2+ goals
55%
Ružomberok 3+ goals
28%
FC Noah 1+ goals
62%
FC Noah 2+ goals
25%
FC Noah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok (draw refunded)
75%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok attack 1.25 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.85

FC Noah attack 0.92 + Ružomberok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ružomberok scores more
58%
level
23%
FC Noah scores more
19%

Ružomberok at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ružomberok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Ružomberok 3–1 FC Noah

Ružomberok beat FC Noah 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Ružomberok in Ružomberok.