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FC Noah vs Ružomberok — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ružomberok
Ružomberok
8/20/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsKotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Noah64%
×Draw24%
Ružomberok13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.67
Ružomberok
0.59

FC Noah creates 183% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.08
Ružomberok
0.50

allows per match

FC Noah
0.69
Ružomberok
1.25

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Ružomberok+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Ružomberok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
87%
FC Noah or Ružomberok
76%
Draw or Ružomberok
36%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
36%
Ružomberok wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
81%
FC Noah 2+ goals
50%
FC Noah 3+ goals
23%
Ružomberok 1+ goals
45%
Ružomberok 2+ goals
12%
Ružomberok 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
83%
Ružomberok (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Ružomberok away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + Ružomberok defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ružomberok attack 0.50 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Noah scores more
64%
level
24%
Ružomberok scores more
13%

FC Noah at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Noah vs Ružomberok

FC Noah beat Ružomberok 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.