Rutherglen Glencairn 2–2 Kilwinning Rangers

Rutherglen Glencairn

FT

2 – 2

Kilwinning Rangers

8/27/2022

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundHamish B. Allan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rutherglen Glencairn40%

×Draw21%

Kilwinning Rangers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rutherglen GlencairnExpected goals in this matchKilwinning Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

Rutherglen Glencairn

2.00

Kilwinning Rangers

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rutherglen Glencairn

2.00

Kilwinning Rangers

2.00

allows per match

Rutherglen Glencairn

2.00

Kilwinning Rangers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rutherglen Glencairn+0.00on par

Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rutherglen Glencairn ↓

Kilwinning Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Rutherglen Glencairn or draw

60%

Rutherglen Glencairn or Kilwinning Rangers

79%

Draw or Kilwinning Rangers

60%

Winning margin

Rutherglen Glencairn wins by 2+

22%

Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rutherglen Glencairn 1+ goals

86%

Rutherglen Glencairn 2+ goals

59%

Rutherglen Glencairn 3+ goals

32%

Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals

86%

Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals

59%

Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Rutherglen Glencairn (draw refunded)

50%

Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rutherglen Glencairn at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kilwinning Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rutherglen Glencairn attack 2.00 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.00 + Rutherglen Glencairn defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rutherglen Glencairn scores more

40%

level

21%

Kilwinning Rangers scores more

40%

Rutherglen Glencairn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rutherglen Glencairn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff