Kilwinning Rangers 2–1 Rutherglen Glencairn

Kilwinning Rangers

FT

2 – 1

Rutherglen Glencairn

9/3/2022

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary Round ReplaysKilwinning Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kilwinning Rangers60%

×Draw18%

Rutherglen Glencairn22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilwinning RangersExpected goals in this matchRutherglen Glencairn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.53

Kilwinning Rangers

2.60

Rutherglen Glencairn

1.53

Kilwinning Rangers creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.20

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kilwinning Rangers

2.20

Rutherglen Glencairn

1.67

allows per match

Kilwinning Rangers

1.40

Rutherglen Glencairn

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Rutherglen Glencairn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilwinning Rangers ↓

Rutherglen Glencairn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Kilwinning Rangers or draw

78%

Kilwinning Rangers or Rutherglen Glencairn

82%

Draw or Rutherglen Glencairn

40%

Winning margin

Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+

39%

Rutherglen Glencairn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals

92%

Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals

73%

Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals

47%

Rutherglen Glencairn 1+ goals

78%

Rutherglen Glencairn 2+ goals

45%

Rutherglen Glencairn 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)

73%

Rutherglen Glencairn (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilwinning Rangers at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Rutherglen Glencairn away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.20 + Rutherglen Glencairn defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Rutherglen Glencairn attack 1.67 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kilwinning Rangers scores more

60%

level

18%

Rutherglen Glencairn scores more

22%

Kilwinning Rangers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kilwinning Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff