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Rustavi vs Saburtalo — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Rustavi
Rustavi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
10/6/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 30Teknikuri Tsentri (Rustavi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rustavi34%
×Draw26%
Saburtalo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rustavi
1.27
Saburtalo
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 126 away

creates per match

Rustavi
1.22
Saburtalo
1.63

allows per match

Rustavi
1.15
Saburtalo
1.33

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par
Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Saburtalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw
60%
Rustavi or Saburtalo
74%
Draw or Saburtalo
66%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+
15%
Saburtalo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals
72%
Rustavi 2+ goals
36%
Rustavi 3+ goals
14%
Saburtalo 1+ goals
75%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
40%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)
46%
Saburtalo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.22 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Rustavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rustavi scores more
34%
level
26%
Saburtalo scores more
40%

Saburtalo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Rustavi 0–3 Saburtalo

Saburtalo beat Rustavi 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Teknikuri Tsentri (Rustavi).