Rustavi 3–1 Saburtalo: Result & Stats

Rustavi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Saburtalo

L. Zviadadze 90+6'

F. Gystarov 74'

L. Imnadze 58'

D. Tsnobiladze 90+3'

5/10/2019

Erovnuli Liga · Round 12Teknikuri Tsentri (Rustavi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rustavi34%

×Draw26%

Saburtalo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RustaviExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.39

Rustavi

1.27

Saburtalo

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 126 away

1.22

creates per match

1.63

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rustavi

1.22

Saburtalo

1.63

allows per match

Rustavi

1.15

Saburtalo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Saburtalo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw

60%

Rustavi or Saburtalo

74%

Draw or Saburtalo

66%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+

15%

Saburtalo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals

72%

Rustavi 2+ goals

36%

Rustavi 3+ goals

14%

Saburtalo 1+ goals

75%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

40%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)

46%

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.22 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Rustavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rustavi scores more

34%

level

26%

Saburtalo scores more

40%

Saburtalo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

G. Kokhreidze

27'

A. Gujabidze

31'

B. Gvaradze← G. Diasamidze

40'

T. Kapanadze

57'

V. Gonçalves← O. Rolović

58'

L. Imnadze

63'

V. Dvalishvili← T. Gorgiashvili

65'

T. Chogadze← P. Kiteishvili

74'

F. Gystarov

88'

L. Gadrani← L. Kochladze

90+4'

L. Zviadadze← L. Imnadze

90+3'

D. Tsnobiladze

90+6'

L. Zviadadze

Rustavi

Saburtalo

1

Migineish

15

⚽

4

13

12

39

▼

Gorgiashv

17

▼

Diasamidz

9

Shindagor

22

Altunashv

29

▼

10

25

2

21

⚽

Gystarov

15

▼

5

6

8

7

14

▼

Kiteishvi

19

⚽

▼

Imnadze

10

Tsitskish

Manager: V. Kilasonia

65'▲T. Chogadze←▼P. Kiteishvili

88'▲L. Gadrani←▼L. Kochladze

90+4'▲L. Zviadadze←▼L. Imnadze

Rustavi substitutes

11Chogadze4Gadrani17Zviadadze3Takulov12Kulua22Tchitchaghua

Manager: G. Tchiabrishvili

31'▲B. Gvaradze←▼G. Diasamidze

57'▲V. Gonçalves←▼O. Rolović

63'▲V. Dvalishvili←▼T. Gorgiashvili

Saburtalo substitutes

11Gvaradze7Gonçalves14Dvalishvili2Mali16Shelikhov20Tera21Kakubava