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Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Rustavi
Rustavi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
11/25/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 34Poladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rustavi54%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rustavi
1.90
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.16

Rustavi creates 64% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 56 away

creates per match

Rustavi
1.72
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.34

allows per match

Rustavi
0.97
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.07

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw
77%
Rustavi or Dinamo Tbilisi II
78%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
46%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+
31%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals
85%
Rustavi 2+ goals
56%
Rustavi 3+ goals
29%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)
70%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.72 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.34 + Rustavi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rustavi scores more
54%
level
22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
23%

Rustavi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rustavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

Rustavi beat Dinamo Tbilisi II 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 25, 2025.

The match was played at Poladi Stadium in Rustavi.