Dinamo Tbilisi II 0–3 Rustavi: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tbilisi II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Rustavi

9/27/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 25Vitali Daraselia Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II44%

×Draw24%

Rustavi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Tbilisi IIExpected goals in this matchRustavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.40

Dinamo Tbilisi II

1.66

Rustavi

1.40

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 71 away

1.73

creates per match

1.24

1.55

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II

1.73

Rustavi

1.24

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II

1.55

Rustavi

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Rustavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Rustavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw

68%

Dinamo Tbilisi II or Rustavi

76%

Draw or Rustavi

56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+

23%

Rustavi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals

23%

Rustavi 1+ goals

75%

Rustavi 2+ goals

41%

Rustavi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)

57%

Rustavi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

Rustavi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.73 + Rustavi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rustavi attack 1.24 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more

44%

level

24%

Rustavi scores more

32%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff