Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Russia vs Iceland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Russia
Russia
CANC
18:45
Iceland
Iceland
6/10/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Russia69%
×Draw20%
Iceland11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Russia
2.01
Iceland
0.66

Russia creates 205% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Russia
1.20
Iceland
0.91

allows per match

Russia
0.40
Iceland
2.82

finishing

Russia+0.00on par
Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Iceland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Russia or draw
89%
Russia or Iceland
80%
Draw or Iceland
31%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+
43%
Iceland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals
87%
Russia 2+ goals
59%
Russia 3+ goals
32%
Iceland 1+ goals
48%
Iceland 2+ goals
14%
Iceland 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)
86%
Iceland (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 1.20 + Iceland defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.01

Iceland attack 0.91 + Russia defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Russia scores more
69%
level
20%
Iceland scores more
11%

Russia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Russia host Iceland

June 10, 2022: Russia take on Iceland in UEFA Nations League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.