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Iceland vs Russia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Iceland
Iceland
CANC
13:00
Russia
Russia
9/24/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iceland41%
×Draw22%
Russia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iceland
1.85
Russia
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Iceland
1.09
Russia
1.40

allows per match

Iceland
2.09
Russia
2.60

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par
Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Russia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Iceland or draw
63%
Iceland or Russia
78%
Draw or Russia
59%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+
22%
Russia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals
84%
Iceland 2+ goals
55%
Iceland 3+ goals
28%
Russia 1+ goals
82%
Russia 2+ goals
52%
Russia 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)
53%
Russia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Russia away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.09 + Russia defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Russia attack 1.40 + Iceland defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Iceland scores more
41%
level
22%
Russia scores more
37%

Iceland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iceland vs Russia — Match Preview

Iceland face Russia on September 24, 2022 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.