Russia 1–4 Belgium: Result & Stats

Russia

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Belgium

G. Dzhikiya 79'

R. Lukaku 72'

E. Hazard 40', 33'

T. Hazard 19'

11/16/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Russia32%

×Draw23%

Belgium45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchBelgium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.79

Russia

1.47

Belgium

1.79

Belgium creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.57

creates per match

2.00

1.57

allows per match

0.38

creates per match

Russia

2.57

Belgium

2.00

allows per match

Russia

1.57

Belgium

0.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Belgium+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Belgium →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Russia or draw

55%

Russia or Belgium

77%

Draw or Belgium

68%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

15%

Belgium wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

77%

Russia 2+ goals

43%

Russia 3+ goals

18%

Belgium 1+ goals

83%

Belgium 2+ goals

53%

Belgium 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

41%

Belgium (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Belgium away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.57 + Belgium defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Belgium attack 2.00 + Russia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Russia scores more

32%

level

23%

Belgium scores more

45%

Belgium at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Belgium · F

9.5

Match Events

3'

Sergei Petrov

19'

T. Hazard↳ E. Hazard

33'

E. Hazard↳ R. Lukaku

40'

E. Hazard↳ K. De Bruyne

50'

Z. Bakaev← Y. Zhirkov

52'

Y. Tielemans← D. Mertens

62'

D. Kuzyaev← R. Zobnin

67'

J. Denayer← T. Vermaelen

72'

R. Lukaku↳ K. De Bruyne

77'

M. Batshuayi← R. Lukaku

79'

G. Dzhikiya

80'

N. Komlichenko← A. Dzyuba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaBelgium

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots11

7Corners1

13Fouls3

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target8

6Off Target3

2Blocked0

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

599Total Passes549

512Accurate Passes468

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls3

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0