Belgium 3–1 Russia: Result & Stats

Belgium

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Russia

E. Hazard 88', 45' (pen)

Y. Tielemans 14'

D. Cheryshev 16'

3/21/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Belgium45%

×Draw24%

Russia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchRussia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.39

Belgium

1.71

Russia

1.39

Belgium creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.27

creates per match

2.14

0.64

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Belgium

2.27

Russia

2.14

allows per match

Belgium

0.64

Russia

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Russia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

69%

Belgium or Russia

76%

Draw or Russia

55%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

24%

Russia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

82%

Belgium 2+ goals

51%

Belgium 3+ goals

24%

Russia 1+ goals

75%

Russia 2+ goals

40%

Russia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

59%

Russia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Russia away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.27 + Russia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.71

Russia attack 2.14 + Belgium defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belgium scores more

45%

level

24%

Russia scores more

31%

Belgium at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Belgium · F

9.4

Match Events

14'

Y. Tielemans↳ T. Castagne

16'

D. Cheryshev

18'

Aleksandr Golovin

26'

Anton Miranchuk← D. Kuzyaev

45'

E. HazardPenalty

65'

F. Chalov← D. Cheryshev

77'

F. Smolov← A. Dzyuba

84'

N. Chadli← T. Hazard

88'

E. Hazard↳ M. Batshuayi

89'

Dries Mertens

90'

Aleksandr Golovin

90'

Aleksandr Golovin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgiumRussia

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots4

8Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots4

6On Target2

4Off Target2

5Blocked0

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

640Total Passes410

558Accurate Passes332

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

–Red Cards1

2Offsides3