Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rumphi United vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

Rumphi United
Rumphi United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
MAFCO
MAFCO
8/14/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rumphi United27%
×Draw28%
MAFCO45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rumphi United
0.96
MAFCO
1.32

MAFCO creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Rumphi United
0.60
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

Rumphi United
1.73
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

Rumphi United+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumphi United ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rumphi United or draw
55%
Rumphi United or MAFCO
72%
Draw or MAFCO
73%

Winning margin

Rumphi United wins by 2+
10%
MAFCO wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rumphi United 1+ goals
62%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
25%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
7%
MAFCO 1+ goals
73%
MAFCO 2+ goals
38%
MAFCO 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rumphi United (draw refunded)
38%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumphi United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumphi United attack 0.60 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

MAFCO attack 0.91 + Rumphi United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rumphi United scores more
27%
level
28%
MAFCO scores more
45%

MAFCO at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rumphi United 1–3 MAFCO

MAFCO beat Rumphi United 3-1 in Super League on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.