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MAFCO vs Rumphi United — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rumphi United
Rumphi United
5/28/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MAFCO72%
×Draw18%
Rumphi United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
2.16
Rumphi United
0.65

MAFCO creates 232% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Rumphi United
0.40

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Rumphi United
3.07

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Rumphi United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Rumphi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
90%
MAFCO or Rumphi United
82%
Draw or Rumphi United
28%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
47%
Rumphi United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
88%
MAFCO 2+ goals
63%
MAFCO 3+ goals
36%
Rumphi United 1+ goals
48%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
14%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
88%
Rumphi United (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Rumphi United away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Rumphi United defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.16

Rumphi United attack 0.40 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

MAFCO scores more
72%
level
18%
Rumphi United scores more
10%

MAFCO at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MAFCO vs Rumphi United

MAFCO beat Rumphi United 3-0 in Super League on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Chitowe Stadium in Nkhotakota.