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Rukh Vynnyky vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2026

Rukh Vynnyky
Rukh Vynnyky
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
O. Dovgyi 40'
V. Vanat 16'
4/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky14%
×Draw21%
Dynamo Kyiv65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky
0.79
Dynamo Kyiv
1.95

Dynamo Kyiv creates 147% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky
0.91
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky
1.41
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.31scores more
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw
35%
Rukh Vynnyky or Dynamo Kyiv
79%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
86%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+
4%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals
55%
Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals
19%
Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals
5%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
58%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)
18%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 9 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 0.91 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more
14%
level
21%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
65%

Dynamo Kyiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
V. Kholod← R. Didyk
13'
Denys Popov
16'
V. Vanat↳ Benito
19'
Maksym Diachuk
40'
O. Dovgyi
45+1'
Oleksei Dovgiy
46'
A. Tsarenko← V. Shepelev
46'
D. Garmash← Benito
63'
Yurii Klymchuk
64'
O. Andrievskyi← J. Lonwijk
64'
E. Ramírez← V. Vanat
65'
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
69'
O. Prytula← O. Dovgyi
69'
F. Alvarenga← M. Mysyk
81'
Ostap Prytula
88'
Y. Karabin← Talles

Possession

47%Rukh

Shots

11Rukh

Statistics

RukhDynamo
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots14
2Corners5
23Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots14
5On Target4
6Blocked3
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
23Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Rukh Vynnyky vs Dynamo Kyiv

Rukh Vynnyky and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 14, 2023.

Goals: V. Vanat (16'), O. Dovgyi (40').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Arena L'viv in L'viv.