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Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
9/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv62%
×Draw22%
Ruh Lviv17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.94
Ruh Lviv
0.89

Dynamo Kyiv creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Ruh Lviv
0.92

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Ruh Lviv
1.45

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Ruh Lviv-0.14scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Ruh Lviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
83%
Dynamo Kyiv or Ruh Lviv
78%
Draw or Ruh Lviv
38%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
37%
Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
58%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
30%
Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
59%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
22%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
79%
Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
62%
level
22%
Ruh Lviv scores more
17%

Dynamo Kyiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 0–0 Ruh Lviv

Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kyiv.