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Rukh Vynnyky II vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
8/27/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 4Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky II42%
×Draw25%
Nyva Vinnytsya34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky II
1.52
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.34

Rukh Vynnyky II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky II
1.59
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.32

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky II
1.36
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.46

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par
Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky II ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky II or draw
66%
Rukh Vynnyky II or Nyva Vinnytsya
75%
Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya
58%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
20%
Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
78%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
45%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
20%
Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
74%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
39%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
55%
Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.59 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
42%
level
25%
Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
34%

Rukh Vynnyky II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Rukh Vynnyky II 1–1 Nyva Vinnytsya

Rukh Vynnyky II and Nyva Vinnytsya drew 1-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha in Vynnyky.