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Nyva Vinnytsya vs Rukh Vynnyky II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
11/23/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 19Tsentralnyi miskyi stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya40%
×Draw27%
Rukh Vynnyky II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.33
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.17

Nyva Vinnytsya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.53
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.18

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.16
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.14

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Rukh Vynnyky II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw
67%
Nyva Vinnytsya or Rukh Vynnyky II
73%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky II
60%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
18%
Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
74%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
38%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
15%
Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
69%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
33%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
55%
Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Rukh Vynnyky II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.18 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
40%
level
27%
Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
33%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyva Vinnytsya vs Rukh Vynnyky II

Nyva Vinnytsya beat Rukh Vynnyky II 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi miskyi stadion in Vinnytsia.