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Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty — Premier League 2026

Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty
Karpaty
Jean Pedroso 43'
10/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Ruh Lviv30%
×Draw26%
Karpaty44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Lviv
1.17
Karpaty
1.47

Karpaty creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ruh Lviv
1.04
Karpaty
1.52

allows per match

Ruh Lviv
1.42
Karpaty
1.29

finishing

Ruh Lviv+0.03on par
Karpaty-0.31scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Lviv ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ruh Lviv or draw
56%
Ruh Lviv or Karpaty
74%
Draw or Karpaty
70%

Winning margin

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
12%
Karpaty wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
69%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
33%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
11%
Karpaty 1+ goals
77%
Karpaty 2+ goals
43%
Karpaty 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
41%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Lviv at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Lviv attack 1.04 + Karpaty defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Karpaty attack 1.52 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ruh Lviv scores more
30%
level
26%
Karpaty scores more
44%

Karpaty at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47
Jean PedrosoKarpatyKarpaty · D
8.7

Match Events

43'
Jean Pedroso↳ D. Miroshnichenko
45+1'
Yurii Klymchuk
45+1'
Denys Miroshnichenko
53'
Y. Pastukh← O. Prytula
59'
M. Sapuha← D. Pidhurskyi
59'
I. Kvasnytsia← Y. Klymchuk
62'
Y. Pidlepenets← O. Ocheretko
62'
A. Shakh← Bruninho
66'
Shakh Artur
76'
D. Ustymenko← Igor Neves
79'
A. Plumain← Y. Karabin
81'
B. Vekliak← V. Adamiuk

Possession

51%Ruh

Shots

18Ruh

Pass accuracy

49%Ruh

Statistics

RuhKarpaty
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots13
1.65Expected Goals (xG)1.16
5Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots13
4On Target6
8Off Target4
6Blocked3
7Inside Box7
11Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
352Total Passes315
272Accurate Passes250
77%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty

Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2024.

Goals: Jean Pedroso (43').

Ruh Lviv controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.