Karpaty 3–1 Ruh Lviv: Result & Stats

Karpaty

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ruh Lviv

D. Pidhurskyi 72' (OG)

Igor Neves 45'

Bruninho 20'

Y. Pastukh 89'

4/19/2025

Premier League · Round 25Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Karpaty48%

×Draw25%

Ruh Lviv27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarpatyExpected goals in this matchRuh Lviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Karpaty

1.59

Ruh Lviv

1.11

Karpaty creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.72

creates per match

0.88

1.35

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Karpaty

1.72

Ruh Lviv

0.88

allows per match

Karpaty

1.35

Ruh Lviv

1.46

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Karpaty-0.02on par

Ruh Lviv-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Ruh Lviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw

73%

Karpaty or Ruh Lviv

75%

Draw or Ruh Lviv

52%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+

25%

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals

80%

Karpaty 2+ goals

47%

Karpaty 3+ goals

21%

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

67%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

30%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)

65%

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.35 · 10 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.72 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ruh Lviv attack 0.88 + Karpaty defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karpaty scores more

48%

level

25%

Ruh Lviv scores more

27%

Karpaty at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Igor Neves

Karpaty · F

8.3

Match Events

20'

Bruninho↳ Igor Neves

22'

Denys Sliusar

28'

D. Pidhurskyi← D. Sliusar

33'

37'

45'

45'

46'

V. Runich← B. Almazbekov

60'

A. Riabov← Edson Fernando

60'

B. Faal← Y. Klymchuk

62'

I. Krasnopir← Igor Neves

62'

V. Klymenko← A. Shakh

67'

V. Kholod← R. Didyk

72'

D. PidhurskyiOwn goal

74'

Vladislav Klimenko

77'

Y. Pidlepenets← O. Ocheretko

77'

O. Fedor← Bruninho

80'

Igor Krasnopir

83'

Artur Ryabov

87'

I. Kvasnytsia← A. Chachua

89'

Y. Pastukh↳ Y. Karabin

90+2'

Yakiv Kinareikin

90+2'

Vasyl Runich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KarpatyRuh

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots13

2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.82

6Corners4

15Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots13

6On Target5

3Off Target4

4Blocked4

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

294Total Passes305

234Accurate Passes246

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls18

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Premier League: Karpaty 3–1 Ruh Lviv

Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 3-1 in Premier League on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Bruninho (20'), Igor Neves (45'), D. Pidhurskyi (72' o.g.), Y. Pastukh (89').

Karpaty controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.

Karpaty vs Ruh Lviv — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Karpaty 3–1 Ruh Lviv