Ruh Lviv 0–2 Dnipro-1: Result & Stats

Ruh Lviv

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dnipro-1

11/1/2023

Premier League · Round 5Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ruh Lviv35%

×Draw27%

Dnipro-138%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruh LvivExpected goals in this matchDnipro-1

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Ruh Lviv

1.21

Dnipro-1

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 68 away

1.15

creates per match

1.37

1.16

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ruh Lviv

1.15

Dnipro-1

1.37

allows per match

Ruh Lviv

1.16

Dnipro-1

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Dnipro-1+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Lviv ↓

Dnipro-1 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ruh Lviv or draw

62%

Ruh Lviv or Dnipro-1

73%

Draw or Dnipro-1

65%

Winning margin

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

15%

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

70%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

34%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

12%

Dnipro-1 1+ goals

72%

Dnipro-1 2+ goals

36%

Dnipro-1 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

48%

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Lviv at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Dnipro-1 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Lviv attack 1.15 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dnipro-1 attack 1.37 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ruh Lviv scores more

35%

level

27%

Dnipro-1 scores more

38%

Dnipro-1 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dnipro-1 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff