Dnipro-1 0–1 Ruh Lviv: Result & Stats

Dnipro-1

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ruh Lviv

3/8/2024

Premier League · Round 20Dnipro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dnipro-152%

×Draw25%

Ruh Lviv23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dnipro-1Expected goals in this matchRuh Lviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.96

Dnipro-1

1.60

Ruh Lviv

0.96

Dnipro-1 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 82 away

1.82

creates per match

0.91

1.01

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Dnipro-1

1.82

Ruh Lviv

0.91

allows per match

Dnipro-1

1.01

Ruh Lviv

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dnipro-1+0.00on par

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 ↓

Ruh Lviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 or draw

77%

Dnipro-1 or Ruh Lviv

75%

Draw or Ruh Lviv

48%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+

28%

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 1+ goals

80%

Dnipro-1 2+ goals

47%

Dnipro-1 3+ goals

22%

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

62%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

25%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)

70%

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.01 · 67 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 attack 1.82 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dnipro-1 scores more

52%

level

25%

Ruh Lviv scores more

23%

Dnipro-1 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dnipro-1 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff