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Ruh Brest vs Naftan — 1. Division 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Naftan
Naftan
5/12/20191. Division1. Division · Round 5Stadyen Junost (Brest)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ruh Brest48%
×Draw24%
Naftan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
1.75
Naftan
1.29

Ruh Brest creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
2.21
Naftan
1.58

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.00
Naftan
1.28

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
72%
Ruh Brest or Naftan
76%
Draw or Naftan
52%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
26%
Naftan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
83%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
52%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
25%
Naftan 1+ goals
72%
Naftan 2+ goals
37%
Naftan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
63%
Naftan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Naftan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 2.21 + Naftan defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.75

Naftan attack 1.58 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
48%
level
24%
Naftan scores more
28%

Ruh Brest at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruh Brest vs Naftan

Ruh Brest and Naftan drew 2-2 in 1. Division on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Junost (Brest).