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Naftan vs Ruh Brest — 1. Division 2018

Naftan
Naftan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
9/14/20191. Division1. Division · Round 20Stadyen Atlant (Navapolatsk (Novopolotsk))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Naftan26%
×Draw23%
Ruh Brest51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
1.23
Ruh Brest
1.83

Ruh Brest creates 49% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 14 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.60
Ruh Brest
2.43

allows per match

Naftan
1.24
Ruh Brest
0.86

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
49%
Naftan or Ruh Brest
77%
Draw or Ruh Brest
74%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
10%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
71%
Naftan 2+ goals
35%
Naftan 3+ goals
13%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
84%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
54%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
33%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.60 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Naftan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Naftan scores more
26%
level
23%
Ruh Brest scores more
51%

Ruh Brest at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftan vs Ruh Brest

Naftan and Ruh Brest drew 2-2 in 1. Division on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Atlant (Navapolatsk (Novopolotsk)).