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Ruh Brest vs Dinamo Minsk — Premier League 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
10/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ruh Brest37%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Minsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
1.33
Dinamo Minsk
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 127 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
1.83
Dinamo Minsk
1.61

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.07
Dinamo Minsk
0.83

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Dinamo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
63%
Ruh Brest or Dinamo Minsk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk
63%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
74%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
38%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
50%
Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 1.83 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.61 + Ruh Brest defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
37%
level
26%
Dinamo Minsk scores more
37%

Ruh Brest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ruh Brest 1–3 Dinamo Minsk

Dinamo Minsk beat Ruh Brest 3-1 in Premier League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski in Brest.