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Dinamo Minsk vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
3/20/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadyen Traktar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dinamo Minsk42%
×Draw26%
Ruh Brest32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.46
Ruh Brest
1.25

Dinamo Minsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.75
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
68%
Dinamo Minsk or Ruh Brest
74%
Draw or Ruh Brest
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
20%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
18%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
71%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
36%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
56%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 125 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.75 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
42%
level
26%
Ruh Brest scores more
32%

Dinamo Minsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk vs Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Dinamo Minsk 1-0 in Premier League on March 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadyen Traktar in Minsk.