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Rudňany vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Rudňany
Rudňany
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
5/21/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany40%
×Draw20%
Mladosť Kalša40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudňany
2.19
Mladosť Kalša
2.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rudňany
1.53
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Rudňany
2.60
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw
60%
Rudňany or Mladosť Kalša
80%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
60%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+
22%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals
89%
Rudňany 2+ goals
64%
Rudňany 3+ goals
37%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
89%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
65%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)
50%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rudňany scores more
40%
level
20%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
40%

Rudňany at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rudňany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudňany vs Mladosť Kalša

Mladosť Kalša beat Rudňany 2-1 in 3. liga - East on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudňany in Rudňany.