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Mladosť Kalša vs Rudňany — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
3 – 2
Rudňany
Rudňany
10/3/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 11Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mladosť Kalša70%
×Draw15%
Rudňany15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
3.24
Rudňany
1.50

Mladosť Kalša creates 116% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Rudňany
1.13

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Rudňany
4.00

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Rudňany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
85%
Mladosť Kalša or Rudňany
85%
Draw or Rudňany
30%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
51%
Rudňany wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
96%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
83%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
61%
Rudňany 1+ goals
78%
Rudňany 2+ goals
44%
Rudňany 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
82%
Rudňany (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.24

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
70%
level
15%
Rudňany scores more
15%

Mladosť Kalša at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladosť Kalša vs Rudňany

Mladosť Kalša beat Rudňany 3-2 in 3. liga - East on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.