Rudes 1–3 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats | HNL

Rudes

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

NK Slaven Belupo

4/12/2024

HNL · Round 30Igralište NK Rudeš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rudes29%

×Draw25%

NK Slaven Belupo46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RudesExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.60

Rudes

1.22

NK Slaven Belupo

1.60

NK Slaven Belupo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

0.72

creates per match

0.97

2.22

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Rudes

0.72

NK Slaven Belupo

0.97

allows per match

Rudes

2.22

NK Slaven Belupo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rudes or draw

54%

Rudes or NK Slaven Belupo

75%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

71%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+

12%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals

70%

Rudes 2+ goals

34%

Rudes 3+ goals

12%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

80%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

47%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)

39%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.22 · 36 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 0.72 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.22

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + Rudes defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rudes scores more

29%

level

25%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

46%

NK Slaven Belupo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff