NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 Rudes: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Slaven Belupo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rudes

2/3/2024

HNL · Round 21Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo56%

×Draw24%

Rudes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchRudes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.95

NK Slaven Belupo

1.75

Rudes

0.95

NK Slaven Belupo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

1.14

creates per match

0.61

1.28

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.14

Rudes

0.61

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.28

Rudes

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

Rudes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

80%

NK Slaven Belupo or Rudes

76%

Draw or Rudes

44%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

31%

Rudes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

83%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

52%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

25%

Rudes 1+ goals

61%

Rudes 2+ goals

25%

Rudes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

73%

Rudes (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

Rudes away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + Rudes defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rudes attack 0.61 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

56%

level

24%

Rudes scores more

20%

NK Slaven Belupo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff