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Rudar vs Otrant-Olympic — Second League 2021

Rudar
Rudar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
D. Jovanovic 17'
A. Sofranac 43'
2/28/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudar44%
×Draw27%
Otrant-Olympic29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.08

Rudar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.86
Otrant-Olympic
1.34

allows per match

Rudar
0.83
Otrant-Olympic
0.94

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Otrant-Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
71%
Rudar or Otrant-Olympic
73%
Draw or Otrant-Olympic
56%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
21%
Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
75%
Rudar 2+ goals
41%
Rudar 3+ goals
17%
Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals
66%
Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals
29%
Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
60%
Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

Otrant-Olympic away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.86 + Otrant-Olympic defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.34 + Rudar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rudar scores more
44%
level
27%
Otrant-Olympic scores more
29%

Rudar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
D. Jovanovic
43'
A. Sofranac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Otrant-Olympic

Rudar and Otrant-Olympic drew 1-1 in Second League on February 28, 2026.

Goals: D. Jovanovic (17'), A. Sofranac (43').