Otrant-Olympic 6–2 Rudar: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Otrant-OlympicExpected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Otrant-Olympic

1.73

Rudar

1.05

Otrant-Olympic creates 65% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 35 away

2.00

creates per match

1.29

0.81

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Otrant-Olympic

2.00

Rudar

1.29

allows per match

Otrant-Olympic

0.81

Rudar

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otrant-Olympic ↓

Rudar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Otrant-Olympic or draw

77%

Otrant-Olympic or Rudar

76%

Draw or Rudar

47%

Winning margin

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+

29%

Rudar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals

82%

Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals

52%

Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals

25%

Rudar 1+ goals

65%

Rudar 2+ goals

28%

Rudar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)

70%

Rudar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otrant-Olympic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 53 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otrant-Olympic attack 2.00 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rudar attack 1.29 + Otrant-Olympic defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Otrant-Olympic scores more

53%

level

24%

Rudar scores more

23%

Otrant-Olympic at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Otrant-Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Sofranac

24'

D. Talovic

38'

F. Pavicevic

53'

M. SekulicOwn goal

73'

I. PanticPenalty

79'

V. Rudovic

81'

D. Pepic

87'

C. Zama Ekene

Otrant-Olympic

Rudar

Manager: D. Kaplanbegu

Manager: M. Lambulić