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Rudar vs Mladost DG — Second League 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
11/3/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudar45%
×Draw26%
Mladost DG29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.44
Mladost DG
1.10

Rudar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.86
Mladost DG
1.37

allows per match

Rudar
0.83
Mladost DG
1.02

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Mladost DG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
71%
Rudar or Mladost DG
74%
Draw or Mladost DG
55%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
22%
Mladost DG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
76%
Rudar 2+ goals
42%
Rudar 3+ goals
18%
Mladost DG 1+ goals
67%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
30%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
61%
Mladost DG (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.86 + Mladost DG defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mladost DG attack 1.37 + Rudar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rudar scores more
45%
level
26%
Mladost DG scores more
29%

Rudar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Mladost DG

Rudar beat Mladost DG 3-0 in Second League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.