Mladost DG 1–0 Rudar: Result & Stats | First League

Mladost DG

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rudar

A. Maraš 50' (pen)

4/27/2024

First League · Round 32DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mladost DG46%

×Draw26%

Rudar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost DGExpected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Mladost DG

1.52

Rudar

1.14

Mladost DG creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 90 away

1.27

creates per match

0.86

1.41

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Mladost DG

1.27

Rudar

0.86

allows per match

Mladost DG

1.41

Rudar

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost DG+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost DG ↓

Rudar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mladost DG or draw

71%

Mladost DG or Rudar

74%

Draw or Rudar

54%

Winning margin

Mladost DG wins by 2+

23%

Rudar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mladost DG 1+ goals

78%

Mladost DG 2+ goals

45%

Mladost DG 3+ goals

20%

Rudar 1+ goals

68%

Rudar 2+ goals

32%

Rudar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mladost DG (draw refunded)

62%

Rudar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost DG at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Rudar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost DG attack 1.27 + Rudar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rudar attack 0.86 + Mladost DG defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost DG scores more

46%

level

26%

Rudar scores more

29%

Mladost DG at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladost DG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Vlahovic

37'

L. Knežević← N. Ukšanović

40'

B. Appiah

50'

A. MarašPenalty

53'

M. Zecevic

54'

P. Bogdanović← D. Živković

59'

N. Kovacevic

59'

N. Radusinović← M. Jukić

64'

S. Popovic

69'

B. Došljak← D. Vuković

71'

M. Badnjar

74'

I. Okamoto← J. Muhović

74'

O. Kasalica← S. Popović

76'

L. Pejovic

87'

B. Dosljak

90+1'

A. Golubovic

90+5'

N. Radusinovic

90'

J. Vujisić← A. Maraš

Mladost

Rudar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Maraš

▼

Jukić

Manager: S. Bubanja

59'▲N. Radusinović←▼M. Jukić

69'▲B. Došljak←▼D. Vuković

90'▲J. Vujisić←▼A. Maraš

Mladost DG substitutes

RadusinovićDošljakVujisić

Manager: D. Vlaisavljević

37'▲L. Knežević←▼N. Ukšanović

54'▲P. Bogdanović←▼D. Živković

74'▲I. Okamoto←▼J. Muhović

74'▲O. Kasalica←▼S. Popović

Rudar substitutes

KneževićBogdanovićOkamotoKasalica

First League: Mladost DG 1–0 Rudar

Mladost DG beat Rudar 1-0 in First League on April 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Maraš (50' pen).

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.

Mladost DG vs Rudar — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Mladost DG 1–0 Rudar