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Rudar vs Lovćen — Second League 2021

Rudar
Rudar
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Lovćen
Lovćen
V. Vickovic 87' (pen)
D. Jovanovic 69', 40'
M. Racic 52' (OG)
M. Djukanovic 45', 13'
A. Kecevic 15'
11/8/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudar53%
×Draw25%
Lovćen23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.64
Lovćen
0.98

Rudar creates 67% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.86
Lovćen
1.13

allows per match

Rudar
0.83
Lovćen
1.42

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
77%
Rudar or Lovćen
75%
Draw or Lovćen
47%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
28%
Lovćen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
81%
Rudar 2+ goals
49%
Rudar 3+ goals
23%
Lovćen 1+ goals
62%
Lovćen 2+ goals
26%
Lovćen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
70%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.86 + Lovćen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lovćen attack 1.13 + Rudar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rudar scores more
53%
level
25%
Lovćen scores more
23%

Rudar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Djukanovic
15'
A. Kecevic
40'
D. Jovanovic
45'
M. Djukanovic
52'
M. RacicOwn goal
69'
D. Jovanovic
70'
M. Racic
70'
M. Racic
87'
V. VickovicPenalty
Rudar
Lovćen
M. Lambulić
Manager: M. Lambulić
V. Savićević
Manager: V. Savićević

Second League: Rudar 7–0 Lovćen

Rudar beat Lovćen 7-0 in Second League on November 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Djukanovic (13', 45'), A. Kecevic (15'), D. Jovanovic (40', 69'), M. Racic (52' o.g.), V. Vickovic (87' pen).

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pljevlja.