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Lovćen vs Rudar — Second League 2019

Lovćen
Lovćen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rudar
Rudar
H. Sakamaki 90+2'
B. Pavicevic 43'
5/3/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 32Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lovćen35%
×Draw26%
Rudar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lovćen
1.28
Rudar
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lovćen
1.10
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Lovćen
1.39
Rudar
1.46

finishing

Lovćen+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lovćen ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lovćen or draw
62%
Lovćen or Rudar
74%
Draw or Rudar
65%

Winning margin

Lovćen wins by 2+
15%
Rudar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lovćen 1+ goals
72%
Lovćen 2+ goals
37%
Lovćen 3+ goals
14%
Rudar 1+ goals
74%
Rudar 2+ goals
39%
Rudar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lovćen (draw refunded)
48%
Rudar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lovćen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lovćen attack 1.10 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rudar attack 1.29 + Lovćen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lovćen scores more
35%
level
26%
Rudar scores more
38%

Rudar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
V. Pavlovic
30'
A. Sofranac
43'
B. Pavicevic
43'
B. Pavicevic
46'
L. Drmac← L. Drmac
47'
A. Sofranac
47'
A. Sofranac
51'
V. Vucicevic
54'
V. Vucicevic← A. Bozinoski
54'
H. Sakamaki← H. Sakamaki
68'
B. Bujisa← B. Guzina
70'
S. Vukcevic← N. Radevic
70'
L. Drmac
70'
D. Kojasevic
75'
B. Globarevic← B. Globarevic
83'
M. Golubovic← R. Vujovic
83'
N. Draganic← N. Draganic
90+2'
H. Sakamaki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lovćen 2 – 0 Rudar

Lovćen beat Rudar 2-0 in Second League on May 3, 2025.

Goals: B. Pavicevic (43'), H. Sakamaki (90+2').

The match was played at Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom in Podgorica.