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Rudar vs Lovćen — Second League 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lovćen
Lovćen
9/7/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudar52%
×Draw25%
Lovćen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.61
Lovćen
0.99

Rudar creates 63% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 67 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.86
Lovćen
1.15

allows per match

Rudar
0.83
Lovćen
1.36

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
77%
Rudar or Lovćen
75%
Draw or Lovćen
48%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
27%
Lovćen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
80%
Rudar 2+ goals
48%
Rudar 3+ goals
22%
Lovćen 1+ goals
63%
Lovćen 2+ goals
26%
Lovćen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
69%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.86 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Rudar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rudar scores more
52%
level
25%
Lovćen scores more
23%

Rudar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
O. Kasalica
42'
V. Vucicevic← B. Globarevic
45+1'
B. Globarevic
46'
L. Stanisic← L. Stanisic
46'
D. Radulovic← D. Radulovic
61'
F. Vujovic← B. Radovic
61'
F. Kalacevic← F. Kalacevic
63'
N. Sekulic
70'
P. Obadovic← P. Obadovic
71'
B. Pavicevic← B. Pavicevic
73'
M. Golubovic
78'
D. Kojasevic← S. Golubovic
90+4'
A. Sofranac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Rudar 0–0 Lovćen

Rudar and Lovćen drew 0-0 in Second League on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.