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Rudar vs Ilirija — 2. SNL 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ilirija
Ilirija
4/11/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 23Mestni stadion ob jezeru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Rudar40%
×Draw27%
Ilirija33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.35
Ilirija
1.20

Rudar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 75 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.31
Ilirija
1.17

allows per match

Rudar
1.23
Ilirija
1.40

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Ilirija+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Ilirija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
67%
Rudar or Ilirija
73%
Draw or Ilirija
60%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
18%
Ilirija wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
74%
Rudar 2+ goals
39%
Rudar 3+ goals
15%
Ilirija 1+ goals
70%
Ilirija 2+ goals
34%
Ilirija 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
55%
Ilirija (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 86 matches

Ilirija away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.40 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.31 + Ilirija defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ilirija attack 1.17 + Rudar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rudar scores more
40%
level
27%
Ilirija scores more
33%

Rudar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. SNL: Rudar 0–0 Ilirija

Rudar and Ilirija drew 0-0 in 2. SNL on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Mestni stadion ob jezeru in Velenje.