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Ilirija vs Rudar — 2. SNL 2019

Ilirija
Ilirija
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rudar
Rudar
5/24/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 30Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ilirija42%
×Draw25%
Rudar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilirija
1.56
Rudar
1.35

Ilirija creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 86 away

creates per match

Ilirija
1.32
Rudar
1.27

allows per match

Ilirija
1.43
Rudar
1.79

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw
67%
Ilirija or Rudar
75%
Draw or Rudar
58%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+
21%
Rudar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals
79%
Ilirija 2+ goals
46%
Ilirija 3+ goals
21%
Rudar 1+ goals
74%
Rudar 2+ goals
39%
Rudar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)
56%
Rudar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 1.32 + Rudar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rudar attack 1.27 + Ilirija defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ilirija scores more
42%
level
25%
Rudar scores more
33%

Ilirija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilirija vs Rudar

Rudar beat Ilirija 2-1 in 2. SNL on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Športni park Ilirija in Ljubljana.