Rudar Velenje 3–2 Kom: Result & Stats

Rudar Velenje

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Kom

12/1/2019

First League · Round 17Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rudar Velenje44%

×Draw26%

Kom30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar VelenjeExpected goals in this matchKom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

Rudar Velenje

1.44

Kom

1.14

Rudar Velenje creates 26% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

1.28

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Rudar Velenje

1.10

Kom

1.00

allows per match

Rudar Velenje

1.28

Kom

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Kom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw

70%

Rudar Velenje or Kom

74%

Draw or Kom

56%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

21%

Kom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

76%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

42%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

18%

Kom 1+ goals

68%

Kom 2+ goals

32%

Kom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

59%

Kom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Kom away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Kom defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kom attack 1.00 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more

44%

level

26%

Kom scores more

30%

Rudar Velenje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff