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Kom vs Rudar — Second League 2021

Kom
Kom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rudar
Rudar
C. Zama Ekene 69'
9/6/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 4Stadion FK Kom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kom42%
×Draw26%
Rudar31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom
1.40
Rudar
1.17

Kom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kom
1.33
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Kom
1.05
Rudar
1.46

finishing

Kom+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kom or draw
69%
Kom or Rudar
74%
Draw or Rudar
58%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+
20%
Rudar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals
75%
Kom 2+ goals
41%
Kom 3+ goals
17%
Rudar 1+ goals
69%
Rudar 2+ goals
33%
Rudar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)
57%
Rudar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 87 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.33 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rudar attack 1.29 + Kom defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kom scores more
42%
level
26%
Rudar scores more
31%

Kom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
C. Zama Ekene
Kom
Rudar
D. Rabrenović
Manager: D. Rabrenović
M. Lambulić
Manager: M. Lambulić

Second League: Kom 0–1 Rudar

Rudar beat Kom 1-0 in Second League on September 6, 2025.

Goals: C. Zama Ekene (69').

The match was played at Stadion FK Kom in Podgorica.