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Kom vs Rudar — Second League 2019

Kom
Kom
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rudar
Rudar
M. Burzanovic 88', 26'
L. Sili 65'
L. Mihaljevic 40'
M. Damjanovic 43'
4/12/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Čelika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kom42%
×Draw26%
Rudar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom
1.39
Rudar
1.18

Kom creates 18% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kom
1.31
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Kom
1.06
Rudar
1.46

finishing

Kom+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kom or draw
68%
Kom or Rudar
74%
Draw or Rudar
58%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+
20%
Rudar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals
75%
Kom 2+ goals
40%
Kom 3+ goals
16%
Rudar 1+ goals
69%
Rudar 2+ goals
33%
Rudar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)
57%
Rudar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.31 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rudar attack 1.29 + Kom defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kom scores more
42%
level
26%
Rudar scores more
32%

Kom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Burzanovic
36'
D. Nikolic← L. Mihaljevic
40'
L. Mihaljevic
43'
M. Damjanovic
47'
D. Radulovic
62'
V. Vucicevic
65'
L. Sili
68'
A. Bozinoski← D. Kojasevic
68'
B. Globarevic← B. Globarevic
68'
S. Vukcevic← N. Radevic
68'
V. Radenovic← V. Radenovic
70'
A. Krivokapic← A. Krivokapic
75'
V. Vucicevic← D. Djulovic
86'
M. Pejovic← M. Pejovic
86'
V. Ajkovic← V. Ajkovic
88'
M. Burzanovic
90'
A. Kartal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kom vs Rudar

Kom beat Rudar 4-1 in Second League on April 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Burzanovic (26', 88'), L. Mihaljevic (40'), M. Damjanovic (43'), L. Sili (65').

The match was played at Stadion Čelika in Nikšić.