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Rudar Prijedor vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Modriča
Modriča
10/29/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Rudar Prijedor72%
×Draw18%
Modriča10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Prijedor
2.22
Modriča
0.69

Rudar Prijedor creates 222% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 71 away

creates per match

Rudar Prijedor
2.10
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Rudar Prijedor
0.67
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Prijedor ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rudar Prijedor or draw
90%
Rudar Prijedor or Modriča
82%
Draw or Modriča
28%

Winning margin

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
48%
Modriča wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
89%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
65%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
38%
Modriča 1+ goals
50%
Modriča 2+ goals
15%
Modriča 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
88%
Modriča (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Prijedor at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.67 · 73 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Prijedor attack 2.10 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.22

Modriča attack 0.70 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rudar Prijedor scores more
72%
level
18%
Modriča scores more
10%

Rudar Prijedor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Rudar Prijedor 5–0 Modriča

Rudar Prijedor beat Modriča 5-0 in 1st League - RS on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Prijedor.