Modriča 1–0 Rudar Prijedor: Result & Stats

Modriča

FT

1 – 0

Rudar Prijedor

3/28/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 19Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Modriča40%

×Draw28%

Rudar Prijedor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModričaExpected goals in this matchRudar Prijedor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Modriča

1.25

Rudar Prijedor

1.07

Modriča creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 73 away

1.70

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Modriča

1.70

Rudar Prijedor

1.03

allows per match

Modriča

1.11

Rudar Prijedor

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Rudar Prijedor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Modriča or draw

68%

Modriča or Rudar Prijedor

72%

Draw or Rudar Prijedor

60%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+

18%

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals

71%

Modriča 2+ goals

36%

Modriča 3+ goals

13%

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals

66%

Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals

29%

Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)

56%

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Modriča scores more

40%

level

28%

Rudar Prijedor scores more

32%

Modriča at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff