Rudar Prijedor 1–1 FK Romanija Pale: Result & Stats

Rudar Prijedor

FT

1 – 1

FK Romanija Pale

3/16/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rudar Prijedor66%

×Draw21%

FK Romanija Pale13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar PrijedorExpected goals in this matchFK Romanija Pale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.74

Rudar Prijedor

1.97

FK Romanija Pale

0.74

Rudar Prijedor creates 166% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 49 away

2.10

creates per match

0.80

0.67

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Rudar Prijedor

2.10

FK Romanija Pale

0.80

allows per match

Rudar Prijedor

0.67

FK Romanija Pale

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Prijedor ↓

FK Romanija Pale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rudar Prijedor or draw

87%

Rudar Prijedor or FK Romanija Pale

79%

Draw or FK Romanija Pale

34%

Winning margin

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+

41%

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals

86%

Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals

58%

Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals

31%

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals

52%

FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals

17%

FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)

83%

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Prijedor at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.67 · 73 matches

FK Romanija Pale away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Prijedor attack 2.10 + FK Romanija Pale defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.97

FK Romanija Pale attack 0.80 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rudar Prijedor scores more

66%

level

21%

FK Romanija Pale scores more

13%

Rudar Prijedor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff